Iceberg Ahead: The Pilot Shortage

Arriving at the airport today, it is not uncommon to spot a flurry of cancelled airline flights. These cancelled routes are not from New York to Amsterdam or Detroit to Tokyo. Instead, they are from smaller cities that connect larger cities. These routes are typically operated by regional air carriers, which are separate entities from the major air carriers who passengers think they are flying with. Although an aircraft has a Delta Air Lines paint scheme, many passengers are surprised when they realize they are actually flying with Endeavor Air Lines or another regional affiliate. There is debate about the exact cause of the pilot shortage, but the proof is in the data. Pilot supply will only meet two-thirds of the demand. Nonetheless, these regional carriers are facing a critical shortage of pilots, which is contributing to an increase in flight cancellations. To understand the pilot shortage in its entirety, it is important to understand the extreme regulatory and monetary factors which are causing it, the impacts of the shortage, and what solutions can be implemented.

One of the greatest contributing factors of the pilot shortage is the new minimum hiring standards for regional airline pilots. In 2009, after the crash of Colgan 3407, Congress and the families of the victims of the accident increased hiring minimums to 1,500 hours of flight time from just 250 (Fitzpatrick, 2016). The problem is these requirements are now more expensive than ever to meet. Graduating with an aviation degree, the required certifications, and building the flight experience will cost upwards of $150,000 (Andersen, 2016). This may not seem extraneous, as doctors and lawyers spend the equivalent or more for their education. The key difference is what each of these graduates will be paid after they begin working. While doctors and lawyers are well into the six figures after a few years, starting airline pilots are making a measly $23,000 a year (Isidore, 2016). With such low starting salaries, it is impossible for many pilots to survive and pay off their mountain of student debt. Many pilots are so discouraged that they leave the United States to fly for other foreign carriers, which offer extremely lucrative pay and benefits. Others abandon the industry entirely, becoming disgusted with the regional airline abuse and poverty-line wages. This is one contributing factor of the looming pilot shortage.

A large component of the pilot shortage also stems from major air carriers in the United States, such as Delta, American, and United. Over the next seven years, these legacy carriers will be forced to retire 18,000 pilots (Diehl, 2015). This is a result of the mandatory retirement age of 65 for all airline pilots. This was recently extended from age 60 to 65 just a few years ago to prevent the effects of the pilot shortage and essentially purchase more time. Today, pilots who were 60 when the rule was extended are now 65, creating an iceberg of retirements. This would not prove to be such an issue if pilots existed to replace these retirees, but there are simply not enough pilots. A study conducted by Boeing reveals that over the next 20 years, the pilot supply will be 64,000, while the demand will require 95,000 pilots in North America alone (Andersen, 2016). In order to compensate for these retirements, legacy carriers are poaching pilots from their regional carriers like a vacuum. As a consequence, the regional carriers are now scrambling to replace the pilots who are moving to the major carriers, but they are having difficulty finding qualified candidates. Although legacy carriers are doing fine for now, within the next three to five years, the shear number of retirees may exceed the number of pilots being hired, creating a staffing nightmare for all air carriers while cannibalizing the pilot staff at regional airlines (Croft, 2015).

The pilot shortage is also compounded by steady growth and demand for air travel. Last year, global airline travel expanded a whopping 6% (Andersen, 2016). This immense and growing demand for air travel will be difficult for carriers to keep up with, as they are already struggling just to maintain their current route structures. Adding to the issue is the shrinking pool of airline pilots who come from the military. In the past, 60% of airline pilots came from the military, but today only 40% have a military background (Croft, 2015). Thus, as the military watches the pool of potential pilots dry up, Croft (2015) reveals that they are offering more incentives and bonuses to retain their pilots. This is even more devastating to legacy carriers, who have traditionally relied on a significant and steady flow of pilots from the military, especially given the fact they are struggling to keep pace with global demand and mandatory retirements.

The impacts of the shortage are still in their infancy, as the full brunt of shortage is still several years out. Nonetheless, the lack of pilots is having a stark impact on the airline industry today. The worst impact of the shortage is that smaller cities will continue to lose air carrier service. Regional carriers have already cut service by 10% in nearly 90 communities across the country, and some no longer have scheduled passenger service (Croft, 2015). This is only expected to worsen, as regional carriers will continue to lose pilots to legacy carriers and continue cancelling flights. Republic Airways, a regional carrier, is being sued by Delta Air Lines for failing to meet their flying responsibilities as established in their contract. Republic was forced to reduce their flying by 5%, blaming pilot staffing issues for the high cancellation numbers (Isidore, 2016). These cancellations are not limited to Republic, as nearly every regional struggles to keep their planes staffed with pilots.

This is also likely to increase fares for passengers (Andersen, 2016). As the demand for air travel grows, and the supply diminishes, the basic laws of simple economics will prevail. Fares are also likely to rise, as the costs required to attract more pilots are growing rapidly. Although pilot pay is still very low at most carriers, many regional carriers are offering signing and retention bonuses as well as pay increases. Not to mention the costs associated with increasing promotional and recruiting efforts aimed at prospective pilots. For passengers, this is an absolute nightmare. More expensive fares with fewer flights. For pilots, however, this marks one of the greatest periods to begin flying for a regional air carrier. Endeavor Air Lines, for example, is offering first year pilots $50,000 per year with lucrative retention bonuses ("Earnings," n.d.). Other airlines are following suit, which is phenomenal news for all prospective pilots.

There is not a single, simple solution to the pilot shortage, but it is clear that something must be done. One possible solution is for airlines to begin paying for pilot training. Mochado (2016) notes that the airlines will likely be forced to adopt a model used in the 1960s by United and Pacific Southwest Air Lines, where instrument and commercial training are paid for and prospective pilots are given right seat positions in airliners with very low total time. This solution will be very expensive, but many European carriers use similar methods successfully (Mochado, 2016). Yet another solution is to simply pay pilots more. Increasing wages will likely motivate more candidates to pursue the profession, and bring back those who have left the industry (Fitzpatrick, 2016). Others have argued that the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots should be increased. Japan, for instance, has a mandatory retirement age of 67 for its pilots (Diehl, 2016). Although this solution is essentially a quick patch for the shortage, merely buying time, it may help legacy carriers restructure and develop better avenues to hire more pilots.

Others have suggested implementing an Enhanced Multi-Crew Pilot license. These programs could take commercial pilots who pass existing Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) knowledge exams and put them through advanced, regimented training to prepare them to fly right seat in an airliner (Diehl, 2016). Thus, instead of building 1,500 hours of total flight time, these candidates could begin flying commercial airliners with only a few hundred hours. Such individuals would then be placed on probation, undergoing additional line and training checks before earning their full ATP certificate. The concern with such programs is that individuals may not have sufficient experience with decision making and flying in general before they sit at the controls of an airliner. At the same time these programs provide an efficient solution to alleviate the impending pilot shortage.    

The pilot shortage is real. It is just beginning, and gradually increasing in intensity. It is derived from a culmination of regulatory and monetary factors which have yet to be solved. Passengers will likely suffer from higher fares, reduced routes, and more cancelled flights than ever. Prospective pilots, however, are entering the industry at one of the best times in recent history. Increasing wages, benefits, and competition for pilots make the position more lucrative by the day. Although no one solution will solve the pilot shortage, it is clear that measures must be implemented quickly before the issue takes off.    

References

Andersen, B. (2016, January 28). Pilot shortage threatens to slow U.S. airline growth. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwyman/2016/01/28/pilot-shortage-threatens-to-slow-u-s-airline-growth/#19617c3cbb6e

Croft, J. (2015, February 3). U.S. carriers face shrinking pool of pilots. Retrieved from http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/us-carriers-face-shrinking-pool-pilots

Diehl, A. (2015, May 8). Opinion: Here is a three pronged approach to pilot shortage. Retrieved from http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/opinion-here-three-pronged-approach-pilot-shortage

Earning potential or upgrade potential - why choose? (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.endeavorair.com/pilots.html

Fitzpatrick, A. (2016, March 22). Here's the major crisis the airlines are facing now. Retrieved from http://time.com/4257940/pilot-shortage/

Isidore, C. (2016, February 26). Pilot shortage sends airline into bankruptcy. Retrieved from http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/26/news/companies/pilot-shortage-bankruptcy/

Mochado, R. (2015, July 6). The pilot shortage. Retrieved from https://www.aopa.org/News-and-Video/All-News/2015/August/Pilot/ltl

The NTSB Most Wanted

Among various accident investigation agencies, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is certainly leading the world. As they conduct their investigations, they compile data to formulate trends and make recommendations to increase the safety of various transportation and commercial industries. For 2016, the NTSB has included five most wanted items for aviation. They include, from most to least wanted, cockpit image recorders, prevent loss of control in flight, fatigue related accidents, reducing distractions, and medical fitness.

As a flight instructor, I think this ranking could be rearranged to reflect current industry concerns more realistically. I believe the ranking should begin with preventing loss of control in flight, reducing distractions, fatigue related accidents, medical fitness, and lastly, cockpit image recorders. Preventing loss of control in flight is essentially a result of poor regulation on the behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration. Today, a private pilot can go for nearly two years without flying and legally step on-board an aircraft and fly. Although in order to carry passengers, they need to accomplish just three takeoffs and landings within the preceding 90 days. Nonetheless, these regulations are not strict enough, which allows inexperienced, non-current pilots to go flying. I believe this is the root of the issue. Recreational pilots are not exercising their skills enough, they are not flying with instructors enough, and they are getting themselves killed. The NTSB adds that nearly half of general aviation accidents result from loss of control, resulting in 173 fatalities each year (Sclair, 2016). It is clear that this is the greatest problem facing aviation safety, as it is responsible for many fatalities each year and, in my opinion, is a result of lenient FAA regulations.

Reducing distractions should be ranked second because it impacts virtually all pilots, commercial or not. For example, in 2009 a Northwest Air Lines crew overflew their destination by 150 miles because they claimed to be distracted by their laptop computers (Ahlers, 2009). Not to mention that today, many air crews are using tablet technology to increase situational awareness and improve safety (Sclair, 2016). As portable electronic device technology improves, devices are becoming easier to use in the cockpit and consequently, distracting untrained crews. Given the wide availability of this technology, it should certainly be addressed with better training and perhaps new FAA regulation.

Fatigue related accidents should be third on the list, as recent reform has allowed pilots greater time to acquire sleep, however fatigue remains a contributing factor in many aviation accidents. It really comes down to the nature of flying; strange hours, mental workload, and sleeping away from home. More research into fatigue studies and the impact of fatigue on the human body may promote better pilot rest regulations and rules.

Medical fitness should be placed fourth in the list, as pilots are already screened frequently for their jobs. Although these medical exams may not be sufficient to send an individual to space, they are able to determine if pilots are fit to fly. Although this recommendation likely formed in the aftermath of the recent German Wings pilot suicide, some mental illnesses and diseases are so difficult to detect and rare that such an accident would be nearly impossible to prevent. Yes, pilots need to meet a medical standard to ensure safety. However, greater testing and a battery of mental health screening will not prove fruitful.

Cockpit image recorders should be last on the ranking because they will have little, if any, positive safety impact. Seeing the accident will only prove what investigators can hear and derive from the Flight Data Recorder (FDR). Not to mention it is a reactionary measure. The purpose of such image recorders is to record an accident that already happened. Not to mention the images will need to be retrieved from the wreckage, just as the FDR and other data collection units are. The NTSB should also consider the impact of installing such devices on pilots, who are already under a litany of external pressure.

Cockpit image recorders should not have been on the list at all. Again, this is a reactionary measure to see what happened with a given accident instead of actually preventing it. Furthermore, being taped while working is not something most pilots will simply submit to. They are already being watched by passengers, the FAA, their respective company, and the general public. To be taped would essentially be an invasion of privacy, making pilots very uncomfortable. Furthermore, the technology could be disastrous if it was leaked to the public. The Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) of Delta flight 1141, which crashed en-route to Dallas, is still circulating the internet (Mathieu, 2010). Sounds of the crash and screams of the passengers can be heard on the tape. Releasing these videos to the flying public would certainly prove unsettling and potentially disastrous for the airlines. Mathieu (2010) notes that pilots do not want more scrutiny, and they do not have faith in the privacy and security of these devices.

One item the list should include is automation addiction. This is especially important with Part 121 and Part 135 operators, however it is also important for general aviation. The greatest danger to commercial air travel today, in my opinion, is the interaction of the pilots and the automation they are using. This was evident with the Asiana Boeing 777 which crashed in San Francisco because the pilots did not know how to properly use their automation. I feel that all pilots should receive more automation training, and be required to hand fly the aircraft more so that when automation begins to fail, they are comfortable taking over and flying manually. Although the United States is handling this issue better than other countries, I feel that if action is not taken on the behalf of the FAA, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers, automation related accidents will continue.

Of the items listed, I feel that the FAA will respond most to reducing distractions, medical fitness, and preventing the loss of control in flight. The reason for this is that these issues are directly related to improving safety, and can be addressed with research and regulatory reform. These items have been directly involved in several accidents around the world, and may provide a measurable safety improvement. Fatigue related accidents may not be addressed since the FAA has recently conducted research and created new pilot rest regulations, however the issue remains important. The FAA will probably not react to cockpit image recorders, as it is a rearward looking measure that does not progressively approach safety. The FAA also feels the pressure from the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) as well as other pilot unions and representatives to prevent such technology from entering the cockpit.

References

Ahlers, M. (2009, October 22). Airliner crew flies 150 miles past airport. Retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/2009/TRAVEL/10/22/airliner.fly.by/index.html?iref=24hours

Mathieu, S. (2010, September 28). Video in the cockpit: Privacy vs safety. Retrieved from http://www.nbcnews.com/id/39383365/ns/travel/t/video-cockpit-privacy-vs-safety/#.Vwq9IfkrKUk

Sclair, B. (2016, January 18). Aviation fares better on NTSB's most wated list. Retrieved from http://generalaviationnews.com/2016/01/18/aviation-fares-better-on-ntsbs-most-wanted-list/

Aviation Associations

One organization I intend on joining is the American Institute of  Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). The purpose of the AIAA is, "to ignite and celebrate aerospace ingenuity and collaboration, and its importance to our way of life" ("About," n.d.). The organization, founded in 1963, boasts 30,000 members from various countries across the globe. In addition to advocating for global aerospace and astronautics, the group has published well over 300 books and 200,000 technical articles. The overall focus of this association is to bring the world together to discuss key topics in the aerospace industry. These topics are diverse, and cover engineering, environmental, communication, and various other technical areas of the industry. To promote these ideas, AIAA hosts various seminars and publishes various articles to spark interest and further industry discussion. They also value teachers and educators in the industry, as well as those who are on the front lines of development and innovation. Since 1972, AIAA has provided input to Congress regarding technical, economical, or other aerospace innovations to inform legislators and champion key aviation legislation ("About," n.d.).

The primary reason I am interested in the AIAA is that they are leading the aviation industry from an all encompassing perspective. Not only are they involved in global aerospace policy, but they are also involved with the actual innovators and teachers who are moving the industry forward. It is important to have a complete understanding of all aspects of the aviation industry in order to have a better picture of where it is heading and the current problems it is facing. The global perspective the association provides also widens the aerospace landscape, providing a more complete industry analysis.

Yet another aviation organization I intend on joining is the Airline Pilots Association, International (ALPA). This organization represents 52,000 pilots and 30 individual airlines, with the goal of providing airline safety, security, as well as pilot assistance, advocacy, and representation ("What," n.d.). Since 1931, ALPA has been one of the largest pilot advocacy groups in aviation. They are focused on protecting and ensuring the safety of their pilots, as well as promoting airline travel. In reality, ALPA is very well known for advocating airline safety. They frequently assist and lobby congress with various aviation topics in order to promote safety and security. They are essentially the voice of many airline pilots in the United States, carrying significant influence as a result. Most recently, ALPA boasts the refinement of pilot rest rules based on scientific evidence as one of their greatest achievements in terms of safety and professionalism ("What," n.d.).

My interest in ALPA stems from the fact that I am planning on flying for an airline within the next few months. Beyond that, I think ALPA is generally good in the industry. I believe they have good intentions, and they are promoting aviation safety with a multifaceted approach. Their large influence enables them to provide legislative pressure, which can be used to make the industry more safe and professional for all pilots. Although ALPA is a more mainstream organization, I feel that given its large influence and vast experience with safety, their ideas are important and are worth considering.

Again, it is important to belong to these organizations to understand what is happening in the aviation world. The AIAA provides an impressive perspective of the global aerospace industry, stemming beyond just the airline perspective that I will be involved with. A true professional, in my opinion, should be aware of the developments in the entire industry. At the same time, it is important to join ALPA since they are the most influential voice for airline pilots. As I will soon be an airline pilot, I feel that it is important to have an even deeper connection to the airline industry as a whole. ALPA will certinaly be advocating for legislation and ideas that will impact my life and career, which is extremely important.

References

About AIAA. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.aiaa.org/AboutAIAA/

What we do - ALPA. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.alpa.org/about-alpa/what-we-do