One of the greatest contributing factors of the pilot shortage is the new minimum hiring standards for regional airline pilots. In 2009, after the crash of Colgan 3407, Congress and the families of the victims of the accident increased hiring minimums to 1,500 hours of flight time from just 250 (Fitzpatrick, 2016). The problem is these requirements are now more expensive than ever to meet. Graduating with an aviation degree, the required certifications, and building the flight experience will cost upwards of $150,000 (Andersen, 2016). This may not seem extraneous, as doctors and lawyers spend the equivalent or more for their education. The key difference is what each of these graduates will be paid after they begin working. While doctors and lawyers are well into the six figures after a few years, starting airline pilots are making a measly $23,000 a year (Isidore, 2016). With such low starting salaries, it is impossible for many pilots to survive and pay off their mountain of student debt. Many pilots are so discouraged that they leave the United States to fly for other foreign carriers, which offer extremely lucrative pay and benefits. Others abandon the industry entirely, becoming disgusted with the regional airline abuse and poverty-line wages. This is one contributing factor of the looming pilot shortage.
A large component of the pilot shortage also stems from major air carriers in the United States, such as Delta, American, and United. Over the next seven years, these legacy carriers will be forced to retire 18,000 pilots (Diehl, 2015). This is a result of the mandatory retirement age of 65 for all airline pilots. This was recently extended from age 60 to 65 just a few years ago to prevent the effects of the pilot shortage and essentially purchase more time. Today, pilots who were 60 when the rule was extended are now 65, creating an iceberg of retirements. This would not prove to be such an issue if pilots existed to replace these retirees, but there are simply not enough pilots. A study conducted by Boeing reveals that over the next 20 years, the pilot supply will be 64,000, while the demand will require 95,000 pilots in North America alone (Andersen, 2016). In order to compensate for these retirements, legacy carriers are poaching pilots from their regional carriers like a vacuum. As a consequence, the regional carriers are now scrambling to replace the pilots who are moving to the major carriers, but they are having difficulty finding qualified candidates. Although legacy carriers are doing fine for now, within the next three to five years, the shear number of retirees may exceed the number of pilots being hired, creating a staffing nightmare for all air carriers while cannibalizing the pilot staff at regional airlines (Croft, 2015).
The pilot shortage is also compounded by steady growth and demand for air travel. Last year, global airline travel expanded a whopping 6% (Andersen, 2016). This immense and growing demand for air travel will be difficult for carriers to keep up with, as they are already struggling just to maintain their current route structures. Adding to the issue is the shrinking pool of airline pilots who come from the military. In the past, 60% of airline pilots came from the military, but today only 40% have a military background (Croft, 2015). Thus, as the military watches the pool of potential pilots dry up, Croft (2015) reveals that they are offering more incentives and bonuses to retain their pilots. This is even more devastating to legacy carriers, who have traditionally relied on a significant and steady flow of pilots from the military, especially given the fact they are struggling to keep pace with global demand and mandatory retirements.
The impacts of the shortage are still in their infancy, as the full brunt of shortage is still several years out. Nonetheless, the lack of pilots is having a stark impact on the airline industry today. The worst impact of the shortage is that smaller cities will continue to lose air carrier service. Regional carriers have already cut service by 10% in nearly 90 communities across the country, and some no longer have scheduled passenger service (Croft, 2015). This is only expected to worsen, as regional carriers will continue to lose pilots to legacy carriers and continue cancelling flights. Republic Airways, a regional carrier, is being sued by Delta Air Lines for failing to meet their flying responsibilities as established in their contract. Republic was forced to reduce their flying by 5%, blaming pilot staffing issues for the high cancellation numbers (Isidore, 2016). These cancellations are not limited to Republic, as nearly every regional struggles to keep their planes staffed with pilots.
This is also likely to increase fares for passengers (Andersen, 2016). As the demand for air travel grows, and the supply diminishes, the basic laws of simple economics will prevail. Fares are also likely to rise, as the costs required to attract more pilots are growing rapidly. Although pilot pay is still very low at most carriers, many regional carriers are offering signing and retention bonuses as well as pay increases. Not to mention the costs associated with increasing promotional and recruiting efforts aimed at prospective pilots. For passengers, this is an absolute nightmare. More expensive fares with fewer flights. For pilots, however, this marks one of the greatest periods to begin flying for a regional air carrier. Endeavor Air Lines, for example, is offering first year pilots $50,000 per year with lucrative retention bonuses ("Earnings," n.d.). Other airlines are following suit, which is phenomenal news for all prospective pilots.
There is not a single, simple solution to the pilot shortage, but it is clear that something must be done. One possible solution is for airlines to begin paying for pilot training. Mochado (2016) notes that the airlines will likely be forced to adopt a model used in the 1960s by United and Pacific Southwest Air Lines, where instrument and commercial training are paid for and prospective pilots are given right seat positions in airliners with very low total time. This solution will be very expensive, but many European carriers use similar methods successfully (Mochado, 2016). Yet another solution is to simply pay pilots more. Increasing wages will likely motivate more candidates to pursue the profession, and bring back those who have left the industry (Fitzpatrick, 2016). Others have argued that the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots should be increased. Japan, for instance, has a mandatory retirement age of 67 for its pilots (Diehl, 2016). Although this solution is essentially a quick patch for the shortage, merely buying time, it may help legacy carriers restructure and develop better avenues to hire more pilots.
Others have suggested implementing an Enhanced Multi-Crew Pilot license. These programs could take commercial pilots who pass existing Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) knowledge exams and put them through advanced, regimented training to prepare them to fly right seat in an airliner (Diehl, 2016). Thus, instead of building 1,500 hours of total flight time, these candidates could begin flying commercial airliners with only a few hundred hours. Such individuals would then be placed on probation, undergoing additional line and training checks before earning their full ATP certificate. The concern with such programs is that individuals may not have sufficient experience with decision making and flying in general before they sit at the controls of an airliner. At the same time these programs provide an efficient solution to alleviate the impending pilot shortage.
The pilot shortage is real. It is just beginning, and gradually increasing in intensity. It is derived from a culmination of regulatory and monetary factors which have yet to be solved. Passengers will likely suffer from higher fares, reduced routes, and more cancelled flights than ever. Prospective pilots, however, are entering the industry at one of the best times in recent history. Increasing wages, benefits, and competition for pilots make the position more lucrative by the day. Although no one solution will solve the pilot shortage, it is clear that measures must be implemented quickly before the issue takes off.
References
Andersen, B. (2016, January 28). Pilot shortage threatens to slow
U.S. airline growth. Retrieved from
http://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwyman/2016/01/28/pilot-shortage-threatens-to-slow-u-s-airline-growth/#19617c3cbb6e
Croft, J. (2015, February 3). U.S. carriers face shrinking pool of
pilots. Retrieved from
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/us-carriers-face-shrinking-pool-pilots
Diehl, A. (2015, May 8). Opinion: Here is a three pronged approach
to pilot shortage. Retrieved from
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/opinion-here-three-pronged-approach-pilot-shortage
Earning potential or upgrade potential - why choose? (n.d.).
Retrieved from http://www.endeavorair.com/pilots.html
Fitzpatrick, A. (2016, March 22). Here's the major crisis the
airlines are facing now. Retrieved from http://time.com/4257940/pilot-shortage/
Isidore, C. (2016, February 26). Pilot shortage sends airline into
bankruptcy. Retrieved from http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/26/news/companies/pilot-shortage-bankruptcy/
Mochado, R. (2015, July 6). The pilot shortage. Retrieved from
https://www.aopa.org/News-and-Video/All-News/2015/August/Pilot/ltl
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